FXUS66 KSEW 041614
 AFDSEW
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
 915 AM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008
 
 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA 
 TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL END
 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF 
 ANOTHER SYSTEM TO BRING A RISK OF MORE RAIN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. 
 LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME 
 TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  
 
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 .SHORT TERM...LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING 
 BUT NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY 
 BUT CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT GET MUCH BETTER THAN PARTLY SUNNY. 
 ANY SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED AND BRIEF. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
 
 A WEAK SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE COAST BUT GFS 
 MOS POPS ARE JUST IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY INLAND. THAT IS HOW THE 
 FORECAST IS WORDED AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE CHANGES AT THIS TIME. IT 
 WILL PROBABLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY.
 
 SHOWER CHANCE RAPIDLY DIMINISHES SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND 
 THE EURO ARE BASICALLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS BUILD 
 THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY RISING TO THE 
 MID 80S BY MIDWEEK. BURKE
   
 
 .LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING 
 FOR THIS PERIOD. A WEAK...UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION 
 DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. THE LATEST GFS 
 INDICATED THAT A DRY...UPPER TROF WILL SETTLE OVER THE PAC NW ON 
 THU. UNSURE WHETHER TO BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. AT ANY 
 RATE...ANTICIPATE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS MON 
 THRU THU.
 
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 .AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN SW 
 FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER WESTERN WA THROUGH 
 THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A WEAKLY 
 UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AREAS MVFR THIS MORNING WITH CIGS GENERALLY 
 BKN-OVC020-035 STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS 
 BKN040-060.
 
 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM 
 THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH FROPA EXPECTED ON THE COAST LATE SATURDAY 
 MORNING...WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND SATURDAY 
 AFTERNOON. 
 
 KSEA...WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TAF FOR NOW...HOLDING CIGS BKN025 
 A LITTLE PAST MIDDAY. TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO BKN050 A LITTLE 
 UNCERTAIN BUT 20Z WORKS FOR NOW. EXPECT S-SW SURFACE WINDS TO 
 CONTINUE. KAM
 
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 .MARINE...THE SURFACE RIDGE RIGHT OVER WESTERN WA WILL KEEP PRESSURE 
 GRADIENTS AND WINDS WEAK TODAY. WILL DROP THE CURRENT SCA FOR THE 
 STRAIT. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST INSIDE 140W IS MORE 
 ORGANIZED THAT WE`VE SEEN FOR QUITE A WHILE...BUT IS STILL RATHER 
 WEAK. GFS/NAM AGREE ON A SATURDAY MORNING FROPA ON THE COAST. 
 COARSER GFS IMPLIES THAT THE FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE MAKING IT VERY 
 FAR INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM MANAGES TO 
 KEEP THE FRONT BARELY ABOVE DISSIPATED OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY 
 AFTERNOON. SHOULD HAVE A SCA IN THE CENTRAL/EAST STRAIT LATE 
 SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS FARTHER 
 AND FARTHER OFFSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH 
 GRADUALLY INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THAT PERIOD. SHOULD BE BACK 
 TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL SCA`S IN THE STRAIT. KAM
 
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 .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
 NONE.
 
 
 
 WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE